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Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.
- Sales Rank: #991293 in Books
- Published on: 2015-05-08
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 10.00" h x 7.00" w x 1.00" l, 1.45 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 234 pages
About the Author
Arthur G. Cook is a Principal with ZS, a management consulting firm specializing in the pharmaceutical industry. Previously he was Director of Global Forecasting for Syntex Pharmaceuticals. Art has been involved in pharmaceutical forecasting for over 30 years, has worked with many major pharmaceutical companies on their forecasting processes, and has created forecasts for over 150 therapy areas. He has written and presented widely on the subject of forecasting, portfolio management, market research, and pricing for the pharmaceutical industry.
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Great reference
By Carlos Campos
If you don't know anything about forecasting this book is a great starting point!
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Nicely covers the broad areas of forecasting
By Dad with kids
Nicely covers the broad areas of forecasting, and thats just what it does. It does not get in to the details. So if you are someone who wants to brush your knowledge then this is for you, but if you are looking to learn new methods then maybe you may want to look at some other options.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent introduction and review of pharma forecasting
By J. Bossart
This is a slim book with lots of good information for anybody wanting to get started forecasting their pharmaceutical and biotechnology products, as well as emerging companies with little portfolio management infrastructure looking to strengthen their forecasting process. There is much to be learned and few wasted words. Unlike many books that are used in a classroom setting and are intended primarily as a reference text this book presents forecasting in a practical and concise manner that makes you want to get started. This is a book that can be read cover to cover in three or four hours, so you get the whole picture in one or two bites.
Highly recommended as an introductory or refresher text for anybody involved in pharmaceutical or biotechnology product forecasting, and those involved in product development who wants to get a better handle on what their product is capable of achieving in the commercial setting.
The book is not inexpensive, but it offers a good payback in terms of price and time invested. If you order from Amazon you have the comfort of knowing that if the book doesn't meet your expectations you can easily return it for a refund less a small shipping charge. Unlike many other generic forecasting books this one addresses the unique characteristics of the pharmaceutical market and stays away from a heavy statistics treatment. Biopharma new product forecasting benefits more from a strong analytical approach than any mathematical treatment.
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